The discussion of terms such as foreseeability and predictability in risk assessments is rather common. Like usual, at Riskope we like to have an extremely clear glossary to avoid blunders due to miscommunication.
Foreseeability and Predictability in Risk Assessments
A foreseeable event or situation is one that can be known about or guessed before it happens. We apply it to consequences: can we foresee the damage generated by a (predicted) hazard based on present or future mitigation, policies and actions?
Predictability is the state of knowing what something is like, when something will happen, etc. We apply it to hazards: can we predict the magnitude and the frequency of a hazard?
A scenario that has low predictability and low foreseeability can easily cause a blind spot. Of course, the role of a good risk approach is to reduce uncertainties.
Usual and Usual Extreme Hazards
“Usual” hazards, including their “usual extremes,” are predictable and foreseeable. They have a relative narrow margin of uncertainty, provided interdependencies and systemic amplification are properly considered.
Divergent hazards are unpredictable insofar as their frequency (at a given magnitude level), for example a 1/300 year rain event in one year. Their foreseeability may also be reduced due to various internal or external reasons and consequences may get amplified. For example, a large fire may damage infrastructure which then is susceptible to erosion, slopes failures, etc. once it rains.
In a blog post we will soon publish, we will discuss “business as usual” from a risk assessment, tactical and strategic planning point of view.
Closing Remarks on Foreseeability and Predictability in Risk Assessments
In this age, it is paramount to define our technical glossary. The discussion of terms such as foreseeability and predictability in risk assessments is very important to ensure transparent and unequivocal communications to all stakeholders in projects and operations.
