South Africa has taken an important step towards meeting its carbon reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement, with carbon budget regulations that will demand tangible action from the country’s large emitters.
Published for comment in early August 2025, the draft National Greenhouse Gas Carbon Budget and Mitigation Plan Regulations set the stage for companies to plan exactly how they will cut their carbon emissions – against real targets they will be legally obliged to meet. Philippa Burmeister, Partner and Principal Environmental Scientist at SRK Consulting South Africa, explains that the regulations are aimed at companies that emit over 300,000 tonnes a year of carbon dioxide equivalents.
“These identified companies will need to provide their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission inventories as a baseline, which will need to be rigorously verified”, said Burmeister. “From this basis, they will be required to draft time-bound plans for reducing their emissions – plans which the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment will review and approve”.
Significant Risk
In its assessment of these plans and targets, the department is not bound to accept the proposals and can set its own benchmarks for each applicant. She notes that this could pose a significant risk to companies, who may be required to meet even more demanding targets for carbon reduction.
The regulations are aligned with South Africa’s commitments to reduce emissions, which it outlined in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. In its updated NDCs submitted in 2021, South Africa aims to have achieved annual GHG emissions of 398-510 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2025, and 350-420 Mt in 2030.
“When compared to the GHG emissions generated by South Africa between 2000 and 2022, these commitments equate to a 0-22% reduction by 2025 and a 18-32% reduction by 2030”, she said. “It is worth noting, though, that sector-specific reduction targets have not yet been issued and could require reductions above the country average for high emitters”.
