Presented at the 94th ICOLD Annual Meeting in Guadalajara, this study applies a hierarchical Bayesian approach to derive benchmark annual failure rates by construction method and operational status, highlighting differences across upstream, downstream, single-raise, and dry-stack tailings storage facilities (TSF).
These benchmarks provide an updateable, data-driven foundation for TSF risk management, offering practical failure-rate inputs for screening-level and semi-quantitative assessments and a pathway to Bayesian network models that translate portfolio statistics into site-specific risk estimates.
